中国有嘻哈

‘Overcapacity’ claim groundless as China’s green tech fuels global growth: Tian Xuan_我的网站

3c认证

一 |

北京时间7月3日夜，随着杨健、杨昊在男子10米跳台决赛中夺得金、铜牌，2022国际泳联布达佩斯游泳世锦赛也落下了帷幕。在跳水项目的全部13个项目冠军争夺中，金牌无一例外属于中国跳水队。 Tian Xuan Photo: Courtesy of Tian

Tian Xuan Photo: Courtesy of Tian
In economic theory, "overcapacity" - for which no universally accepted definition exists - is inherently a recurring feature of the market economy's dynamic "balance - imbalance - rebalance" cycle. The Western narrative that equates China's sizable production capacity directly with "overcapacity" defies economic logic and rigor; in reality, it represents a politicization of trade and economic issues.
First, it confuses the concepts of "capacity scale" and "overcapacity." China's overall industrial capacity utilization remains within a reasonable range. Periodically lower utilization in traditional sectors reflects a normal adjustment as these industries advance toward high-end, intelligent, and green production. Ample capacity in certain emerging industries is precisely what meets surging global demand for high-end, smart, and green solutions. Therefore, equating scale with excess is typical equivocation.
Second, "overcapacity" itself is a dynamic feature of market economies, where no fixed balance persists indefinitely. Judging capacity based solely on static snapshots violates basic economic principles.
Third, it is erroneous to simplistically link trade surpluses or industrial subsidies to overcapacity, while ignoring the macro context of global specialization and cross-border savings-investment structures. It also disregards the reality that reasonable capacity utilization ranges differ across economies at varying stages of development. Imposing a single standard on China is neither scientific nor rigorous.
China's global competitiveness in green technology stems from sustained, large-scale investment in innovation, a comprehensive industrial and supply chain system, massive application scenarios, and intense market competition - not from alleged government subsidies. After decades of long-cycle R&D, Chinese industries have achieved breakthroughs in core technologies such as power batteries and photovoltaic modules.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), China's nationwide R&D spending grew at an average annual rate of 10 percent. Economies of scale have continuously diluted production costs. China's ultra-large domestic market and full-chain supporting ecosystem provide an optimal testing ground for new technologies - from pilot verification to mass deployment. With more than 200 million market entities driving fierce competition, enterprises are constantly compelled to cut costs, raise efficiency, and upgrade products, thereby forging dual advantages in price and performance that we see today.
There is no direct causation between subsidies and overcapacity. Industrial subsidies are a globally recognized practice, typically aimed at correcting market failures and advancing critical technologies. China's subsidies are granted on an impartial basis to all types of market entities, in full compliance with WTO rules, and have not triggered disorderly capacity expansion.
Currently, capacity utilization in China's green industries remains within a reasonable range. Support is primarily directed toward R&D, technological breakthroughs, and consumer-side incentives through market-based mechanisms - not toward fueling overcapacity. Crucially, China's high-quality capacity has reduced the global cost of green transition, representing an opportunity rather than a shock to world development.
Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality goals, labeling China's new energy capacity as "overcapacity" is entirely untenable. According to the International Energy Agency, global data center electricity consumption will approach 1 trillion kWh by 2030, with 40 percent of incremental power needing to come from renewables. Demand for wind power, photovoltaics, power batteries, and related green energy solutions remains far from saturated - so claims of "overcapacity" are groundless.
China's capacity plays a central role in advancing the global energy transition. Over the past decade, the levelized cost of electricity from wind and solar globally has fallen by more than 60 percent and 80 percent respectively - improvements largely attributable to Chinese innovation and manufacturing, which have directly lowered the cost threshold for worldwide green transformation.
The US journal Science crowned the global renewable energy surge led by China among its Top 10 Breakthroughs of 2025. Leveraging its technological and scale advantages, China is well positioned to supply abundant, high-quality green energy equipment and solutions, meet fast-growing renewable demand from data centers, industrial production, and other sectors, and tangibly support countries in implementing the Paris Agreement. In short, China is a pivotal force driving the global low-carbon transition.
The so-called "China Shock 2.0" is fundamentally a protectionist narrative rooted in Cold War thinking - a politically motivated claim inconsistent with facts. The rapid development of China's modern industries is driven by innovation and sustained institutional reform, not by dumping allegedly excess capacity abroad. Rather than posing a shock, China's industrial progress offers a "China Opportunity 2.0." It delivers multiple dividends to global development - innovation dividends, market dividends, and growth dividends - while injecting stability and vitality into global industrial chains through an open and win-win approach.
China's high-quality green and high-tech exports have tangibly accelerated the global green transition and reduced production costs worldwide. Meanwhile, as the world's largest goods consumption market and the second-largest importer for 17 consecutive years, China provides enormous market opportunities for economies around the globe. Moreover, China's open-source collaboration and technology sharing in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence and the digital economy enable developing countries to bridge the digital divide at lower cost and share in the benefits of the technological revolution.
The facts demonstrate that China's emerging technologies and products represent a "China Opportunity 2.0" - driving global technological progress, accelerating the green transition, improving livelihoods across nations, and bolstering the industrialization of developing economies. This open and mutually beneficial cooperation stands as the true engine of global economic recovery and sustainable development.
This article is compiled based on an interview with Tian Xuan, dean at the Guanghua School of Management and Boya Distinguished Professor of Finance of Peking University. [email protected]

。此外，他们还获得了2枚银牌、2枚铜牌。

二 | 史无前例 17位选手包揽13个项目冠军在11年前的上海游泳世锦赛上，中国队曾经有过一次垄断全部项目冠军的先例，但当时只有10个比赛项目。

三 | 而随着2015年世锦赛不断设置新项目，现在的设项总数已经增加到了13个，中国队做到了史无前例的大包大揽，前无古人。中国跳水队不愧是名副其实的“梦之队”、六边形战队，而且经过了东京奥运会之后的局部换血，已基本形成了巴黎奥运周期的主力阵容，老将依然坚挺，新人已经挑起了大梁。这个意义对于中国队本身来说更加重大，更加务实。在3年前的光州世锦赛上，中国跳水队在最后一个比赛日以“队员赛程冲突”为理由放弃了混双3米跳板决赛，最终拿下了12枚金牌。队伍的官方表态是让男选手杨昊保存体力确保男单10米台的成绩，但是我们也可以理解为任何事情都不要太满，13块金牌全部拿下的话对整个跳水项目不是好事情。这会严重打击其他国家的积极性，影响跳水项目在国际上的发展。故放弃一块非奥项目金牌，让项目能平衡发展，这个做法是明智和值得的。到了本届布达佩斯世锦赛，中国队的队员们全都做到了最好，一项一项的金牌入账。具体来说，此次共有17位选手出征匈牙利，仅有一人参赛未能获得金牌，就是参加男子1米跳板比赛的18岁湖北选手郑九源，他获得了第八名。另外有一位选手随队去了布达佩斯，但在临阵之前被换下，她就是原本报名参加男女混合团体比赛的东京奥运会女双10米台金牌得主、北京的张家齐。除去这两位运动员有些遗憾之外，中国队有多达15人夺得了奖牌还都拿到了金牌，其中王宗源和全红婵一人夺得三块奖牌，陈芋汐、陈艺文、曹缘、杨昊、昌雅妮各自获得了两枚奖牌。这种参赛人数和夺得金牌、奖牌的比率，在世界单项体育锦标赛历史上，恐怕也是第一次出现，中国跳水队，现在已经到达全盛时期。奥运项目女子项目强过男子项目从8个奥运项目来看，总体而言是女子项目强过男子项目，女子项目中又是跳台项目稳过跳板项目。

四 | 女子10米台、女子3米板，这次四个项目都是以中国选手的完美表现，大幅分差优势夺金而结束的。而以往女板稳于女台的情况此次在世锦赛上稍有改变，一是因为女板中国队以两名没有参加过奥运会的“新手”出战，还要给裁判重新树立印象分。女台的全红婵和陈芋汐则在去年东京奥运会上就已经一战成名，并且两人的水平实在是高出其他国家选手一大块，得分呈断崖式分布，所以她俩连带中国队的女台水准已经到了鹤立鸡群、无懈可击的地步，预计巴黎周期内中国女子跳台成绩将会“一览众山小”。女子跳板单人这次是继2008年北京奥运会14年以来，首次在世界顶级大赛上出现银牌丢失的情况，还是要警惕一下。美中不足男子跳板、跳台尚未“高枕无忧” 如果在包揽了全部金牌后还要分析美中不足的话，那就是男子跳板、男子跳台的四个项目中有些赢得很惊险，尚没有到高枕无忧的地步，还是有部分国外选手对中国运动员构成了一定的威胁。