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一 | 对开源模型的需求正在飙升 插图:贾里德·巴特曼 2026年7月21日 想想美国顶尖的人工智能开发者们吧。 KHIAM, Lebanon -- A Reuters videographer killed in Israeli shelling of southern Lebanon was laid to rest in his hometown Saturday in a funeral procession attended by hundreds of people.Draped in a Lebanese flag, Issam Abdallah’s body was carried on a stretcher through the streets of the southern town of Khiam, from his family’s home to the local cemetery.Dozens of journalists and Lebanese lawmakers attended the funeral.Abdallah was killed Friday evening near the village of Alma al-Shaab in south Lebanon when an Israeli shell landed on a gathering of international journalists covering exchange of fire along the border between Israeli troops and members of Lebanon’s militant Hezbollah group. The Lebanese army said in a statement Saturday that Israeli troops fired a shell the day before hitting a civilian car used by journalists killing Abdallah and wounding others. The army said that other areas in south Lebanon at the time were targeted by an Israeli helicopter gunship and artillery, including the outskirts of the villages of Marwaheen, Kfar Chouba, Aita al-Shaab and Odaisseh.Lebanon’s Foreign Ministry asked Beirut’s mission to the United Nations to file a complaint against Israel over Friday’s shelling, calling it a “flagrant violation and a crime against freedom of opinion and press.” The statement was carried by the state-run National News Agency.Israeli military spokesperson Lt. Col. Richard Hecht told The Associated Press in Jerusalem on Saturday, “We are aware of the incident with the Reuters journalist and we are looking into it.”Hecht did not confirm that the journalists had been hit by Israeli shells, but called the incident “tragic,” adding, “we’re very sorry for his death.”Reuters said in a statement that two of its journalists, Thaer Al-Sudani and Maher Nazeh, were wounded in the same shelling, while Qatar’s Al-Jazeera TV said its cameraman Elie Brakhya and reporter Carmen Joukhadar, were wounded as well.France’s international news agency, Agence France-Presse, said two of its journalists were also wounded. They were identified as photographer Christina Assi, and video journalist Dylan Collins.AFP reported Saturday that Assi was in need of blood transfusions at the American University Medical Center in Beirut where she was hospitalized. The Lebanon-Israel border has been witnessing sporadic acts of violence since Saturday's surprise attack by the militant Palestinian group Hamas on southern Israel.Journalists from various countries have been flocking to Lebanon to monitor the situation.。他们为每一个前沿模型的发布都倾注了无数心血、汗水和巨额资金。然而,还没等他们喘口气,竞争对手就已经迎头赶上。如果只有那些收费的竞争对手紧追不舍,那还算不错。

二 | 但像Anthropologie和OpenAI这样的公司,还得拼命追赶那些免费提供模型的公司,才能勉强保持领先。 7月16日,中国初创公司Moonshot AI发布了Kimi K 3模型,其性能仅略逊于Anthropic和OpenAI的最新产品Fable和Sol。该模型的参数(或称“权重”)将于本月晚些时候免费公开,这意味着用户可以下载并在任何支持该功能的服务器上运行它。

三 | 7月19日,中国互联网巨头阿里巴巴也发布了其Qwen系列模型的新成员预览版,该公司称该模型的性能仅次于Fable。 据研究公司Epoch AI的分析,目前最强大的开源权重模型(通常来自中国)与该技术的前沿水平仅相差数月(见图表)。这些系统的应用正在迅速普及。

四 | 5月份,OpenRouter(一个热门的模型交易平台)的客户对美国顶级实验室提供的系统的使用量与对中国顶级实验室提供的系统的使用量基本持平,这是根据代币消耗量(业内常用的产出单位)来衡量的。次月,美国模型的使用量增长了三分之二,而中国模型的使用量则增长了两倍。 这不仅令美国顶尖的模型开发商感到不安,也令美国政府感到担忧,他们担心美国在人工智能领域的领先地位会因此丧失。据说,特朗普政府内部一些人士正在推动采取各种措施来减缓中国模型的传播。然而,美国政府在授予Fable和Sol等先进模型访问权限方面采取的反复无常的做法,也促使人们开始采用中国开发的开源替代模型。

五 | 早在K3发布之前,中国的开放权重模型就已引起全球关注。中国另一家实验室Z.ai于6月推出的GLM -5.2模型,在诸如软件开发等所谓的智能体任务上,表现优于美国另一家顶级模型开发商谷歌目前提供的任何模型。

六 | 另外两家中国实验室DeepSeek和MiniMax的模型也广受欢迎。据Firefox浏览器开发商Mozilla的一份报告显示,开放权重模型在前沿推理和复杂智能体任务方面仍处于落后地位,目前已被广泛认为足以胜任许多任务。 它们的成本也低得多——这在企业努力应对人工智能成本不断上涨的问题时是一项重要的优势。

七 | 另一家研究公司 Artificial Analysis 会追踪选定模型在其测试套件中执行每项任务的成本。DeepSeek 提供的最强大的系统平均每次任务的成本为 0.04 美元。尚未开源的K3平均成本为 0.95 美元。Fable 的用户预计需要支付 2.75 美元。 成本差异的部分原因在于,几乎任何云服务提供商都可以出售开放权重模型的访问权限,从而拉低利润率。例如,DeepSeek 提供其 v4 闪存模型的访问权限,价格为每百万代币 0.28 美元,而最便宜的第三方服务提供商的价格为每百万代币 0.18 美元。 此外,许多开源模型在训练时特别注重高效运行,部分原因是由于美国对先进芯片的限制,中国实验室在获取计算能力方面面临挑战。诸如“专家混合模型”之类的创新技术已被开源模型开发者广泛应用,该模型仅激活人工智能系统中与查询相关的部分,DeepSeek 和阿里巴巴等实验室在该技术领域取得了长足进步。 然而,开源模型的吸引力远不止于此。由于美国政府仓促试图阻止除美国公民以外的所有人使用Fable模型,导致该模型在全球范围内停用三周,这促使许多公司重新审视自身对独立实验室的依赖。这促使他们尝试使用开源替代方案,这些方案可以通过多个供应商访问,甚至可以在内部服务器上运行。

八 | Mozilla首席技术官拉菲·克里科里安指出,这一事件犹如一声“警钟”。
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